Keys to the Holy War

Here are the keys to today's game for both teams:

Utah Defense:
Utah clearly has tthe talent to stop, or at least slow-down BYU's big runners, especially if BYU keeps it going up the middle. The secondary has been suprinsingly successful and shouldn't have a problem matching up with BYU's wideouts, especially on the deep balls.

Where Utah might struggle is on end-around runs that string the defense out, although I don't think BYU has the speed to keep this up successfully throughout the game. The biggest issue for the Utah defense will be the short over-the-middle passes that Max Hall likes to throw to Pitta, Unga, and DiLuigi. I do think this gives our linebackers and secondary ample chance for making big-play interceptions, but so far this year the defense has given teams enough of a cushion that they can get torn apart by those short passes.

Utah Offense:
Obviously the key here will be Utah's young quarterback. I think it's absolutely critical that they get him into a passing rythm early, so he has the confidence to throw the ball consisently. BYU's secondary has struggled and the Utah receievers should have chances for big plays if Wynn can get the ball near them.

The run-game will be key, especially if Wynn struggles in the passing game. Utah needs to pound it up the middle with Wide, Smithson, and Shakerin. A little 'trickeration' never hurts against your biggest rival, but I think the Utah O-line will win the battle against the BYU D-line.

BYU Defense:
BYU has got to blitz and put pressure on Jordan Wynn. They've gotten away from blitzing this year but that will be a key for them if they want to give their secondary a chance against Utah's wide receivers.

To stop the run-game, again, I think they've got to blitz. They've got to get in and contact the Utah RBs early, if they do that they may have a chance to stop Utah's run game.

BYU Offense:
It's Max Hall's final game in Provo, he has got to step up and will his team to victory. He needs to make smart decisions with his passes, otherwise the Utah secondary is going to have a field day. He needs to go to the open receiver, not stare down his favorite targets.

In order for Unga, Tonga and Co. to be successful they've got to use their speed to get around the outside. Another place they may have an advantage is in their ability to produce yards after contact. If they can average three yards per run I think they've got a good chance of wearing down the Utah defense, and opening up the passing game for Max Hall.

X-Factors:

• BYU has the homefield advantage, true. The only place I see this as a possible problem is with Utah's young QB. It will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure.
• Kyle Whittingham is clealry the better coach. He gets his guys ready for the big games, and his gameplans have been impressive against big opponents. Bronco will have to adjust his gameplan, not just stick to 'BYU football' if he's going to beat the Utes.

Overall, I think the game is Utah's to lose. If they play how they are capable of playing, and they typically show-up well against BYU, then I think they can win. However, I think it will be close.

My final score prediction: Utah by 7 or less.

BYU Football Gone Wrong

What happened yesterday? What's wrong with BYU football? Well I'll tell you:

1) The biggest problem is Botox-Bronco Mendenhall. His stocisim and attempts to 'play BYU football' or 'play every game the same way' are just plain wrong. Your number one job as a coach is to make gameplans and instruct your players in the ways of strategy. Strategy is not stoic or static, it is all about adapting to changing conditions, and if Mr. Mendenhall doesn't figure that out quickly he'll be done coaching football and posing as a poster-boy for Botox.

2) The second biggest problem also traces back to good old Bronco, go figure. BYU's defensive strategy of late has been horrendous. Blitzing works for BYU a good percentage of the time, they have linebackers with good instincts and a weak secondary and yet their attempts to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks have been few-and-far-between. Bronco, or whoever is coaching the defense this days, seems to have resorted to a bend-don't-break philsophy. BYU's secondary gives opposing players, especially the fast, talented wideouts of Florida State and TCU, a good five-yard cushion on every play. I suppose they are worried about the receivers just taking off past them, but come on! BYU can't give up five yards a play on short passes. And when you give those guys a cushion like that, chances are they're going to make a move and get past you anyway!

3) The third problem is...Max Hall. I was sitting on the 40th row last game and I could tell where he was going to throw the ball almost every play. He has GOT to stop staring his receivers down or any defender with eyes will know where the ball is going. He has also GOT to remain calm under pressure. BYU's offensive line is not what it has been, and Max is feeling it, but he can't panic, start dancing around, or try to force plays.

4) The final problem...well, if Austin Collie knows anything, they must not be 'living right'.

Jazz - Past Issues and Hope for the Future

I started this post weeks ago when the prospects for the Jazz this season looked pretty bleak. I was looking for explanations. Why is it that this team has never won the NBA title, a team that since it's founding in 1974 has had the 4th winningest coach in NBA history (Jerry Sloan, or as he likes to be known in the locker room, Gerald Eugene Sloan), a player holding both the all-time career assists and steals records (John Stockton), the second most prolific scorer in NBA history (Karl Malone), 2 conference titles,and 8 division titles? How is it that this team has never taken the big cake? I don't claim to have the answer but here are few ideas that have been batted around the sports world and my take on each:

Why We Didn't Win Then

#1 - We were cheated out of it in 1998 by Dick Bavetta. Michael Jordan pushed off Brian Russell and it was an ineffably egregious no-call on Mr. Bavetta's part.

#2 - Karl Malone choked on his free-throws. A lot of good things can be said of Karl Malone's play, but that was the greatest choke job in Jazz history.

Why We Haven't Won Since

#3 - Is there something inherent about the franchise that somehow prevents us from succeeding? Well yes, and no. One problem is the location. What up-and-coming NBA star wants to come to Utah? We managed to land Karl Malone and he enjoyed being the big fish in a small pond, practically every public statement he made ended up on the front page of the Sports section, or was at least mentioned on the evening news. John Stockton stayed because he enjoyed the lack of paparazzi outside his house. We don't have the flashy clubs or the exclusive restaurants and so we lack the excitement and appeal of an LA or a Miami.

#4 - Jerry Sloan's coaching style - This has been discussed as a problem by many people. Even Deron Williams admitted that opposing teams always know what plays the Jazz are going to run. However, I think Jerry's coaching philosophy is a good one, and one that we can be proud of, championship or not. He likes hard workers, he doesn't like selfish stars, and he plays inside-out. The problem with his strategy of looking inside first has been that we've never had a big presence at the Center position. Having a decent power-forward is probably not enough to make his strategy as successful as it could be. The real issue I have with Jerry is his defensive philosophy. He plays soft defense around the 3-pt. line, likes to take his chances on teams missing those low-percentage perimeter shots, but teams regularly have their highest three-point-shooting nights of the year against us. But, you've gotta love his passion for the game and the success he hass brought. We've had very very few bad seasons during Jerry's tenure.

Why We Aren't Winning Now

#5 - Carlos Boozer - The guy is greedy, selfish, and soft. He is a distraction to the team with his injury antics and talk of where he's going next. He clearly doesn't want to stay in Utah, and now that Paul Millsap is looking like our forward of the future and Karl's heir-apparent, I say we get rid of Boozer ASAP. We can use the ridiculous amount of money we're spending on him to get a decent center (not to disparage Memo, love his three-point threat but he's not a bruiser inside).

#6 - Lack of a decent Center - We do not have now, and never have had a good Center. Ostertag was our mainstay and let's face it, nobody's going to win relying on that guy for an inside presence. As I said, I am a fan of Memo, he is versatile for a big guy and his inside game has improved dramatically over the last two years. However, we need a big, dominating Center if we're going to continue our inside-out offense. I don't see our young prospects (Koufos and Fesenko) being the inside presence we need.

#6 - Youth - We are a young team, and since the big two (Stockton and Malone) left, we have missed their leadership. However, the good news is that our young players look better and better as the season goes on. We have finished strong the last few years, and it appears we will do so again this year. As teams like the Spurs, Lakers, and Celtics get older, we get better and that bodes well for the future. If we can get a core group of guys to stay here for the long term (Williams, Millsap, Brewer, etc.) I think we're in good shape.

Super Bowl Prediction

Key Stat: Arizona is 9-0 when they get a TD in the first quarter. When Arizona scores TDs early, they win because when the offense clicks early they're hard to stop. Look for Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald to connect early, look for Anquan Boldin to help keep the passing game alive, and look for Edgerrin James to provide a solid running attack.

Key Player: Willie Parker. When Willie Parker is the game's leading rusher, Pittsburgh is 8-2. Look for them to get him going early, in combination with Moore and Mendenhall. The running game will be key for Pittsburgh, especially with Hines Ward's injury.

Prediction: It seems as though Pittsburgh has the edge on paper, however if you look at the playoffs, especially the last two games, the Cardinals have all the momentum and could not be playing better. The Steelers have that punishing defense and pounding run game but it seems to me that the Cardinals have something intangible going right now. Their defense has held up pretty well, their offense has been very productive, and so I'm picking the Cardinals by thirteen points or less.

The Year of the Ute

It appears that when it comes to playing BYU (in the sports that count) the Utes can do no wrong. First football, and last night in an unexpected turn of events, basketball. Chris Hill's hire of Ray Giacoletti a few years ago was a serious setback to the Utah basketball program, however it appears the program is making a comeback, at least in the big rivalry game. I am not convinced that Jim Boylen is the coach of the future for this team, but his first victory over the Cougs is definitely a step in the right direction, and the fact that he was able to keep his team focused all the way to the end of a close rivalry game is definitely a positive reflection on his coaching abilities. We'll see how he holds up in a month down in Provo.

Overview

On this blog you'll get my opinions, analysis, and commentary on everything sports related...stay tuned for upcoming posts about Carlos Boozer, the undefeated Utah Utes, and the Super Bowl.